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Spatial Distribution

The effects of climate change on geographical and temporal distribution of phytosanitary problems in Brazil are not well known yet. In order to assess the impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of plant diseases, pests, and weeds of important crops of Brazil, a geographical database will be structured using information provided by the global climate models from IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in its Fourth Assessment Report.


The database will be composed of the meteorological variables including the climate of reference period (climatological normal of 1960-1991), and the future (focusing on the decades of 2020, 2050, and 2080 - scenario A2) and it will be organized using a GIS (Geographic Information System).


The development model of each plant disease, pest, and weed or its climate requirements will be applied on the geographic database for the mapping of geographical distribution in the reference period. These maps will be validated through the consultation with experts, the use of monitoring information, when available, and the support of literature. After that, these valid development models or climate requirements will be adopted again producing maps of potential geographical distribution of phytosanitary problems in the future climate.
In addition to the global climate models from the IPCC, the data provided by Brazil’s regionalized climate models can be used according to the availability of climate variables and the specific features of each phytosanitary problem.

 

temp_media_A2_AR4_br_com_md

Mean temperature projected by IPCC (Figure: Emília Hamada – Embrapa Environment)

 

temp_maxima_A2_AR4_br_com_md

Mean temperature projected by IPCC (Figure: Emília Hamada – Embrapa Environment)

 


General objective

Assessment of the impacts of climate change on geographical and temporal distribution of plant diseases, pests, and weeds in Brazil.

 Specific objectives

- Assessment of the geographical and temporal distribution of phytosanitary problems of: forest species, apple, peach, soybean, grape, corn, cotton, castor beans, forage crops, orange, and coconut in the future climate;
- Geographical database organization of climate information of Brazil.